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03 November 2010

More good news regarding Tomas

The forecast for Tomas has continued to shift towards a more westerly track. Landfall still looks possible, but now it would be in the far western ends of Sud (or possibly the Grand'Anse Department) and Nord-Ouest. This is about as far away from Port-au-Prince and the cholera affected areas the storm could get with the center of the system still making landfall. In the below map, showing the current forecast, the cholera affected areas are shown in red and are based on data from Health Map.

Currently winds have dropped below 35 mph or 56 km/h, changing it’s classification to a tropical depression. During the day on Thursday Tomas is expected to regain tropical storm strength, which will be before the system passes to the east of Jamaica.  As a result Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for all of Jamaica.  As for Haiti, with the change in the likely location of landfall, landfall is now forecasted for the morning hours on Friday in far western Sud department, possibly in Grand'Anse Department. With a second landfall, if it occurs happening roughly 6 hours later in Nord-Ouest Department.

One final note, Tomas, at least for now, is rather disorganized and is more rain than wind. Below is the latest image from the US weather service, showing very little in terms of the nice swirling features typical of well organized tropical systems. However, Tomas still has a lot of rain associated with it.

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