Asia Update #3

A quiet week across most of Asia. Dry across the Middle East, too dry in some locations. Things remain calm across South Asia as the last remnants of Jal have disbursed. Needed rainfall arrived in Manchuria and North Korea . Heavy rain, however, remains firmly in place across Southeast Asia. Possible cyclone development during the day today.

Dry weather remains in place across the Middle East. In many areas this is climatology for this part of the year, however across eastern Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon, northern Iraq and northwest Iran.  Further to the east, in South Asia, things are quiet. After Jal passed through the region, the usual showers and storms resumed, with nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. There is a bit of motion in the southeastern Bay of Bengal. That disturbance may develop into a cyclone, however the models are undecided on what will happen. Some show development, while others show the storm dissipating over the bay.

Some rainfall has eased dry conditions across China's Manchurian provinces, Liaoning, Jilin, Hielongjiang. have been brought back to climatology after last weeks rainfall. northern North Korea also improved, however much of the country, along with South Korea remain with a small rainfall deficit. Also, from the Yellow Sea southward in China, small but growing moisture deficits cover a large portion of the country. Improvement is likely over the next week across southern China.Some rainfall has eased dry conditions across China's Manchurian provinces, Liaoning, Jilin, Hielongjiang. have been brought back to climatology after moderate rainfall last week. Northern North Korea also improved, however much of the country, along with South Korea remain with a small rainfall deficit. Also, from the Yellow Sea southward in China, small but growing moisture deficits cover a large portion of the country. Improvement is likely over the next week across southern China.

Once again this week it is Southeastern Asia that has the most going on. The 18th storm to form in the Western Pacific basin is about to make landfall on Vietnam. The storm may well be named by the time it makes landfall. This system is unfortunately going to add to the already excessive moisture that has caused widespread flooding across Vietnam for the last several weeks. As the system moves further inland, it will spread rainfall over Cambodia and Thailand. It has been a couple of weeks since the rains have ended over those countries, so it is possible that rivers have had an opportunity to drain the region. However, it is also possible that this system will trigger localized flooding in both Thailand and Cambodia. As for Laos, there were no reports that I saw of flooding there, during the events of early November, however, such flooding may have gone unreported. If so, similar conditions to Cambodia and Thailand should be expected.

Over the rest of Southeast Asia, anomalously heavy rainfall has pounded Borneo in Indonesia and Luzon in the Philippines. Far southern Thailand and in and around Brunei have also been on the receiving end of 4 inches or 100 mm of excess precipitation. Unusually heavy precipitation is likely to continue across most of Southeast Asia's islands during the coming week. Most likely this trend will continue for the next several months. Isolated flooding will likely occur regularly across Southeast Asia over the medium-term.