Africa Update #38: Emergency looms in Nigeria and both Sudans

A major emergency is possibly building in Nigeria and Sudan and newly independent (as of yesterday) South Sudan if rainfall does not stabilize across these regions. Looking over a wider area, more moisture is still needed in western Niger, Burkina Faso, much of Chad, and the Central African Republic. Off to the west rainfall remains plentiful; and in Ethiopia, despite a couple of weeks of poor precipitation, rainfall remains well distributed.

Africa Update #37: Rains slipping in the eastern Sahel, famine near certain in Somalia, Kenya

In an area stretching from Niger to Cameroon to Sudan, the rains are becoming erratic and light, threatening crops, livestock and people. Poor rainfall from last season is threatening to cause a famine, primarily in Kenya and Somalia. Northern Africa is now drying down, as is seasonable for this time of year.

Africa Update #36: Deficits continue from Sudan to Nigeria

While most of Africa has been seasonable, a belt stretching from Sudan to Nigeria has had poor rainfall, especially in some of the marginal and pastoral areas. Further to the west and east, rainfall has been near normal, to slightly above normal. Meanwhile along the Mediterranean Sea, light to moderate precipitation has continued across Morocco and Algeria.

Africa Update #35: Relief arrives in Chad

Rainfall surged into Chad, bringing some parts of the country, particularly the marginal areas, into positive rainfall totals for the season. Dryness, however, remains a problem in Chad, and nearby countries. Rains continue in Ethiopia, as the country is on track for a reasonable season. Far west Africa is also having an average wet season, although the rains have been slightly slow moving into Senegal. Precipitation continues in Morocco and Algeria, with trying further east.

Africa Update #34: Rains Continuing to Fail in Chad

Precipitation has been terrible in Chad, and nearby areas of surrounding countries, mainly Sudan and Central African Republic. Light rains this past week in far western Africa have provided some opportunity for field work, while rainfall continues to improve across Ethiopia. The active pattern in northern Africa continues to bring rain to the Maghreb.

Africa Update #33: Dry Corridor Developing in West Africa

A swath of Africa, centered on Chad has been dry all season long. Ethiopia's long season is progressing well, especially in the north around Lake Tana. Meanwhile northern Africa continues a good growing season with sufficient rains, some of which have caused minor complications to the Libyan Civil War, although it does not seem to be playing a major role.

Africa Update #32: Improvement in West Africa

This past week brought significant improvement to the available moisture in west Africa. Elsewhere, rains continue to look good in the Ethiopian Highlands and across the Maghreb.

Africa Update #31: Rains start Pulling out of GHA, insuffient in West

Northeast Kenya never received rain, and most of the rest of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are not fairing much better. Meanwhile in west Africa, eastern parts of the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea have been deteriorating since the  wet season began. In north Africa, moderate rainfall may be complicating the NATO mission and the civil war in Libya, as seasonal rains continue in other parts of the Maghreb.

Africa Update #30: Acute Food Security Emergency in GHA

The biggest event going on in Africa the world, as far as meteorology and food security is concerned, is the second consecutive failed wet season in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The impacts of this could develop into a famine, but at the least the situation has reached the "Emergency" stage. Elsewhere, rainfall is starting up well in the western Sahel, however closer to the GHA, Sahelian rains have been poor. In the north, dry weather continues in Libya, as moderate rainfall continues across Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia.

Africa Update #29: Rainfall finally widespread in the GHA

Although this weeks rainfall requirements have been met in most of the the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), this does nothing for past month and a half of deficits. In the west, rainfall is increasing, however, some of the more eastern areas are starting to show some dryness. Another wet week in Morocco, and in the south rainfall has just about shut off for the season.

Africa Update #28: GHA Drought may be Expanding

Poor rainfall totals in the Greater Horn of Africa appear to be spreading westward into some parts of the eastern Sahel. Meanwhile, early season rainfall continues to look good across most of west Africa, although some areas could use an increase in precipitation. Precipitation is hanging on longer than usual across Namibia and Angola, but generally winding down in the south. Morocco has had very heavy rain for the last week, causing flooding, with seasonable conditions across the rest of northern Africa.

Weather Forecast Independence Referendum in Sudan

Here is the DevWx weather forecast for the coming week across southern Sudan. Hot, dry weather is expected. Nothing unusual in this weather for this time of year in Sudan. Not a drop of water all week (it is the dry season after all) and daytime highs in the over 35^oC, or 95^oF. There is the possibility that in the far southeastern corner of Sudan, near the Kenya border, that temperatures will break 40^oC, or 105^oF. Overnight lows near 15^oC, or 60^oF. It won't dip below 20^oC, or 68^oF, in the eastern part of southern Sudan. In other words, weather will not be a factor in the independence referendum.