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09 September 2011

Tropical Storms Maria and Nate are likely to Strengthen and make Landfall

Let's start with Nate, not a particularly well organized system, it developed over the Gulf of Campeche and has drifted around the gulf ever since. At the moment it nearly stationary for the last six hours. That's about to change as the storm is starting to get pushed westward towards the Mexican coast. As it has wandered around, Nate has caused some minor flooding along the coastal parts of Campeche and Tabasco states. With it's westward trajectory Nate will pull away from these areas and head towards Veracruz state, gaining strength as it goes. It will have winds as fast as 100 mph (160 km/h) when the storm center passes near the city of Poza Rica on Sunday afternoon. Heavy rainfall will likely also impact Hidalgo, Puebla and Tiaxcala. The wet weather from the storm will also make its way into the Mexico City metro area. Nate will bring drought relief to these areas, and other than along the immediate coast should be beneficial.

Maria, currently well out in the Atlantic, is heading towards the Leeward Islands, and is likely to move through the archipelago during the coming weekend as a tropical storm. There is a slight chance that as it passes through the island chain that Maria will achieve hurricane status, however it is more likely that hurricane status will not be achieved until after it moves to the north of Puerto Rico. Islands from Dominica northward to Puerto Rico will experience moderate winds and heavy rain. After exiting the Leeward Islands, Maria could clip the Turks & Caicos as well as the Bahamas. Landfall is possible in the United States, perhaps in areas impacted by Irene, such as North Carolina, Virgina and Maryland states.

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