Although this weeks rainfall requirements have been met in most of the the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), this does nothing for past month and a half of deficits. In the west, rainfall is increasing, however, some of the more eastern areas are starting to show some dryness. Another wet week in Morocco, and in the south rainfall has just about shut off for the season.
So we finally got a "good" week of rain in the GHA. By good, I mean this week we met climatology for the first time this season. However, when looking at the season as a whole, we end up with a major disaster. Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan (especially the south) and Uganda are struggling for water. At the moment, it would seem that there has been a major crop failure in the region, and a food security fiasco very soon. Water resources, for humans and livestock, are almost certain to be low. Little to no improvement is expecting. Rainfall, whatever comes could only provide drinking water, and improve pastureland, for livestock. There isn't enough time left even for very short season crops. Next week rainfall could be very heavy in parts of the GHA, particularly in northern Somalia around Puntland.
Things are not looking good for the region stretching off to the west either. Central African Republic, Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria all are starting the season off poorly. It is still very early in the growing season, for these countries and there could very easily be a turn around. That turn around, however, does not look likely next week, as below average precipitation is expected over the next seven days.
Rainfall is continuing to shutdown in the south, as it should this time of year. Light rains were reported across South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. Meanwhile in the north, moderate to heavy rains hit Morocco, causing another round of scattered flooding incidents, especially in the Atlas Mountains. Dry weather has continued in Libya as the Civil War presses on. More rain is expected in Morocco this week.