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15 April 2011

Africa Update #25: Improvement in the East, but little Hope

Despite some improved rainfall across the east, there is little reason to think that there will be vast season long improvement. This contrasts with west Africa, where early season rainfall has been more than sufficient. In the south, some isolated flooding remains problematic. There has been very little rainfall in Libya, so weather has been irrelevant in the conflict.
Poor rainfall in the east has finally given way to a glimmer of hope, but there is still little chance for a good long rains. Showers and thunderstorms have finally broken over the Ethiopia highlands and eastward into northern Somalia. Coastal Kenya picked up some light rain showers, with more moderate rains in Uganda. So what is the problem with this? The precipitation map should have looked like this 30 - 45 days ago. There is not enough rain for crops across much of the region.

In west Africa, whose wet season doesn't get underway until May or June, depending on the location, early season rains have been good, and long-term models continue to project a normal season.

In the south, rains continue to ease on time. There are a few locations still contenting with late season flooding, mainly along the Namibia-Angola border.

Dry weather in Libya will ensure that weather continues to play little to no role in the ongoing conflict.

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