Africa Update #4

Drought continues to be firmly entrenched across East Africa, and that is not likely to change anytime soon. More moderate dryness continues across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and neighboring countries. In the south, some relief as flooding and cyclones remain a threat between now and May.

East Africa remains parched. A month and a half into the three month season with barely any rain, and there is no relief in sight. The United States weather model is showing some moderate precipitation in the Ethiopian lowlands during the middle of next week, but I don't think that is likely to happen. Other than that hot and dry weather is likely to persist across the region for the remainder of the Deyr season, which comes to a close in December.

The pendulum is preparing to swing the other way in southern Africa. The same global sea surface temperature pattern that has left East Africa parched, will soon begin to soak Southern Africa. Currently, however, since the wet season began in October, there has been a mixed precipitation signal. Dry across central and northern Mozambique, interior parts of South Africa and much of Tanzania and Zambia. Southern Angola is facing the worst of the deficits in the region. 150 mm, or 6 inches of rainfall is needed to bring southern Angola back to average.

Moist conditions, however, remain prevalent across Zimbabwe, Botswana and the critical growing area in northeastern Namibia, known as the Caprivi Strip. The majority of these areas will likely have rainfall surplus by the end of the growing season. Some areas will have problems with flooding and cyclones will also likely be a problem.