Africa Update #47: Heavy rainfall continues across central Africa

Precipitation continued to come down heavily from eastern Niger down to Lake Victoria. Meanwhile season-long deficits are starting to get too high to ignore across Cote d'Ivorie and Ethiopia. Continued poor rainfall in North Sudan and Eritrea has caused major damage to cropping activities. Most of west Africa, however has maintained good ground moisture throughout the season.

Africa Update #43: Excessive Rainfall Around Lake Chad Causes Flooding

Heavy rainfall slammed the greater Lake Chad area affecting Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Cameroon. Positive rainfall anomalies were reported from parts of every country from North Sudan to Senegal, though season long deficits and inconsistency remain overriding problems for Africa. A drier than normal mid-summer break in the rains along the Gulf of Guinea coast.

Africa Update #39: Moisture deteriorating across the Sahel

As rainfall continues to be below normal across much of the Sahel, concerns are rising about patches of failed crops from Nigeria to Sudan. In east Africa, the food crisis is now building to a head, parts of Somalia have been declared to be in a famine by the UN, and more territory in Somalia, and possibly Ethiopia and Kenya may follow.

Africa Update #37: Rains slipping in the eastern Sahel, famine near certain in Somalia, Kenya

In an area stretching from Niger to Cameroon to Sudan, the rains are becoming erratic and light, threatening crops, livestock and people. Poor rainfall from last season is threatening to cause a famine, primarily in Kenya and Somalia. Northern Africa is now drying down, as is seasonable for this time of year.

Africa Update #31: Rains start Pulling out of GHA, insuffient in West

Northeast Kenya never received rain, and most of the rest of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are not fairing much better. Meanwhile in west Africa, eastern parts of the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea have been deteriorating since the  wet season began. In north Africa, moderate rainfall may be complicating the NATO mission and the civil war in Libya, as seasonal rains continue in other parts of the Maghreb.

Africa Update #30: Acute Food Security Emergency in GHA

The biggest event going on in Africa the world, as far as meteorology and food security is concerned, is the second consecutive failed wet season in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The impacts of this could develop into a famine, but at the least the situation has reached the "Emergency" stage. Elsewhere, rainfall is starting up well in the western Sahel, however closer to the GHA, Sahelian rains have been poor. In the north, dry weather continues in Libya, as moderate rainfall continues across Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia.

Africa Update #29: Rainfall finally widespread in the GHA

Although this weeks rainfall requirements have been met in most of the the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), this does nothing for past month and a half of deficits. In the west, rainfall is increasing, however, some of the more eastern areas are starting to show some dryness. Another wet week in Morocco, and in the south rainfall has just about shut off for the season.

Africa Update #28: GHA Drought may be Expanding

Poor rainfall totals in the Greater Horn of Africa appear to be spreading westward into some parts of the eastern Sahel. Meanwhile, early season rainfall continues to look good across most of west Africa, although some areas could use an increase in precipitation. Precipitation is hanging on longer than usual across Namibia and Angola, but generally winding down in the south. Morocco has had very heavy rain for the last week, causing flooding, with seasonable conditions across the rest of northern Africa.

Africa Update #27: On the Brink of Catastrophe in the East

Although there is more rain falling in eastern Africa than there has been all season long, some areas still haven't seen a drop. The rains are nearly two months late in a three month wet season. A clear Intertropical Convergence Zone has set itself up in west Africa, a good sign there. In the south the wet season continues to come to a close and is showing no signs of pulling out early. Rains are picking up in the north, including disrupting the conflict in Libya.

Africa Update #26: Rains Spread in GHA, but not Enough

Rainfall has improved significantly in the Greater Horn of Africa, but not nearly enough to make up deficits from earlier in the season. Early season rainfall continues in west Africa as a late season front pushes through southern Africa.

Africa Update #25: Improvement in the East, but little Hope

Despite some improved rainfall across the east, there is little reason to think that there will be vast season long improvement. This contrasts with west Africa, where early season rainfall has been more than sufficient. In the south, some isolated flooding remains problematic. There has been very little rainfall in Libya, so weather has been irrelevant in the conflict.

Africa Update #24: Crisis Building in the East

Rainfall is completely insufficient in east Africa for the second consecutive growing season.  Meanwhile in the south the rains have continued to ease, as is seasonal for this time of year. In west Africa rainfall is picking up along the southern coast, including in turbulent Côte d'Ivoire.

Africa Update #22: Rains Shift to the North

Rainfall this week showed the first strong northward shift of the rains this season. This is the start of the end of the wet season across southern Africa as moisture moves towards the eastern parts of the continent. By early May the rains will have ended across southern Africa.

Disaster looms in East Africa

There have been several consecutive seasons with above average rainfall in East Africa, an unusual event in this drought prone area. Then everything changed. The abundant moisture of past seasons exited the region resulting in drought conditions across Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. The October to December rains, known as the Deyr Rains, have failed. Pasture for cattle to graze on is running out, and crops that were planted in the hopes of a wet season have barely broken the surface, if they were lucky enough to even germinate. Many areas, especially in Somalia and Ethiopia, have received no rain at all. The prognosis isn't good. Little to no rain is coming to end the drought in the next month and a half. What happened? What went wrong? ...and when will it end?